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Chapter 11 Hearing on 7 Dec 23

I have some paint that I can watch dry. Likely to be as exciting as the hearing :).

Maybe, LOL

They made a ton of petitions that are critical to their overall plan and they are asking for an urgent response to them. We should get a feeling for how compassionate the court is going to be towards Vans.

Many have a little to a lot on the line here so I imaging that will play a part in individuals interest in observing.
 
Be aware that the hearing for Van’s filing is scheduled for tomorrow at 1:30pm Pacific time.

This is all public record on the bankruptcy court’s website. There you can find the link for the Zoom meeting where you can observe.

https://www.orb.uscourts.gov/judge-herchers-video-hearings

Judge’s Calendar

Thank you !


I have some paint that I can watch dry. Likely to be as exciting as the hearing :).

If you don't care about the future of the brand or you don't have money tied up with them, sure.
 
Fuel for more conjecture. Even if you understand what is going on, that isn’t necessarily how it will go.
Been there, seen that.
 
Be aware that the hearing for Van’s filing is scheduled for tomorrow at 1:30pm Pacific time.

This is all public record on the bankruptcy court’s website. There you can find the link for the Zoom meeting where you can observe.

https://www.orb.uscourts.gov/judge-herchers-video-hearings

Judge’s Calendar

If you don't have or want to use Zoom you can dial in:

+1-669-254-5252
Meeting ID: 160 817 6029
Passcode: 784588

One tap mobile

+16692545252,,1608176029#,,,,,,0#,,784588# US (San Jose)

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I'm going to try to be on the call. Van's will likely have to explain the case to the judge and answer questions, so it will be interesting to see what they say.
 
Some of us that want to tune into the hearing today won't be able to. Any idea if there will be either a recording, transcript, or simply some of our more legally educated fellow builders that can give us the rundown after?
 
For those that are planning on joining the zoom, please ensure you have the 'Mute my microphone when joining' turned on. Last thing we want to do is annoy the judge with extraneous background noises of people joining with microphones on.

Brendon Reap
RV-10 (Empennage and Wings in progress, Fuselage and Finish kit on order)
 

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At 2:33 PM Pacific Judge asks about the need for a charge for Inventory Services. Mr. Hamstreet (lonnnng pause) “the accounting system leaves a lot to be desired”

Let that sink in.
 
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At 2:33 PM Pacific Judge asks about the need for a charge for Inventory Services. Mr. Hamstreet (lonnnng pause) “the accounting system leaves a lot to be desired”

Let that sink in.

I thought he said "very bad" not "a lot to be desired" - does anyone have a transcript?
 
Way more interesting than watching paint dry but I am sure glad I am not a lawyer!

I watched paint dry and listened.
Sounds like Vans can proceed and final hearing on 19th. Expedited to keep business going for vans.
 
At 2:33 PM Pacific Judge asks about the need for a charge for Inventory Services. Mr. Hamstreet (lonnnng pause) “the accounting system leaves a lot to be desired”

Let that sink in.

I’d say most of us already know this is part of why this is where it’s at now. I’d think and hope the ship will get tightened up moving forward. They made the motion for court approval for the separate bank account for deposits.
 
I enjoyed listening. A few more takeaways
1. Van's future budget assumes a 70% conversion rate on deposits to accept the new pricing model
2. $22M = The amount of deposit money that's unsecured
3. $500k = The amount of deposit money held in escrow starting Oct. 6th. (14 customers/28 orders)
 
I’d say most of us already know this is part of why this is where it’s at now. I’d think and hope the ship will get tightened up moving forward. They made the motion for court approval for the separate bank account for deposits.

From the document "Declaration of Clyde Hamstreet," he explained:
"...senior employees with deep familiarity with both office and manufacturing process workings chose to retire during Covid..."

That may well have been the start and a big part of the eventual quality assurance and accounting failures.
 
Oh and the Egyptian Air Force is buying engines and props through vans.

680 orders involving third party (the second wave we’ve heard about)
Speculate RV-15 in production summer/fall 2024.
 
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I missed some details on the lycoming contract to Egyptian AF. If that’s the exact contract but it sounded like that was critical for this expedited filing.
 
I was blown away by the request to use funding to push the RV-15 to market.
I don’t disagree that speculatively it could generate sales, that’s in the distant future and not an absolute. In addition it’s my opinion that bringing new products to market is something that businesses that ARE NOT in Chapter 11 get to do.
I don’t see how it is in the near term interest of emerging from Chapter 11. Perhaps spending money on that endeavor AFTER Chapter 11 is in order and not insulting to all those that will be charged extra with a new kit contract.
 
I was blown away by the request to use funding to push the RV-15 to market.
I don’t disagree that speculatively it could generate sales, that’s in the distant future and not an absolute. In addition it’s my opinion that bringing new products to market is something that businesses that ARE NOT in Chapter 11 get to do.
I don’t see how it is in the near term interest of emerging from Chapter 11. Perhaps spending money on that endeavor AFTER Chapter 11 is in order and not insulting to all those that will be charged extra with a new kit contract.

Well it didn’t seem to bother the judge, and he obviously knows what’s allowed, and what makes sense.

While I don’t recall the exact amount in the budget, it is minuscule compared to the rest of the company financial plan. I recall when I saw it I thought it was barely enough to keep the lights on and the aircraft in flyable condition. Certainly not enough to develop a new wing, fuselage, tail, engine mount, cowling and landing gear - the things they have said they’ll work on before making an actual kit aircraft.
 
Well it didn’t seem to bother the judge, and he obviously knows what’s allowed, and what makes sense.

While I don’t recall the exact amount in the budget, it is minuscule compared to the rest of the company financial plan.

Van's is probably very concerned about losing the expertise who've been working on it. Considering what you've reported, if they can afford to keep those people on the payroll while all this irons out, they'll be paid back in spades in the end.

Engineers are a valuable commodity these days.
 
Well it didn’t seem to bother the judge, and he obviously knows what’s allowed, and what makes sense.

While I don’t recall the exact amount in the budget, it is minuscule compared to the rest of the company financial plan. I recall when I saw it I thought it was barely enough to keep the lights on and the aircraft in flyable condition. Certainly not enough to develop a new wing, fuselage, tail, engine mount, cowling and landing gear - the things they have said they’ll work on before making an actual kit aircraft.

The thing is, one the major underlying factors in their present manufacturing difficulties is having too many different products with too many permutations (QB vs SB) and a very large number of discrete parts that have to be separately produced to form shippable kits for each.

That is what has caused their inventory to pile so high and shipments to slow to a crawl - the fact that although they have a building full of parts they struggle to put together even a single kit - there are just too many different parts now. The few kits that they are able to ship go out with many parts on backorder.

The sheer number of parts now in the Van's product range and the limitations of their simultaneous production capabilities would pose a challenge even for the most competent managers of an at-scale manufacturing operation. The Koreans or the Japanese would struggle. A design engineer and a cop never stood a chance.

While I can see the reasoning behind not killing the development program, adding a further product line makes one of the most serious underlying issues worse rather than better.
 
So, as it looks and a basic estimate…the total of unsecured deposits is 22M and they expect approximately 70 percent to accept the new terms…which leaves 6.6M in lost deposits (what they’re expecting)…I have 2 questions…at this point, would you be comfortable sending Vans an additional 37k for your engine kit, or install a different engine? If you have the courage to send the 37k, will you get a kit with B/O parts and have to wait a very long time for the parts? Some have kits from a year ago with B/O parts (from what I’ve read, I just need an engine). Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
 
They will operate in a way such that inventory (and new production) is turned into cash in the most efficient way possible.

Your order will be a high priority and will be shipped relatively quickly if:

1) It is a new order with new cash sent
2) It is relatively easy to fulfil from existing inventory or new production


You will be a low priority and you will quite possibly wait a very long time if:

1) You have already paid
2) Your order requires a large number of parts that they don't have in inventory, and some/all of those parts do not feature in large numbers in the order backlog


New production priorities will be determined by what facilitates shipping the highest volume, particularly of new orders which bring fresh cash. If your order needs parts X, Y and Z to complete it, but only a small number of other orders need parts X, Y and Z (and particularly if most of these orders are old ones) then they aren't going to dedicate production capacity to producing those parts. Your order will sit there unfulfilled until they literally have nothing more productive to do.

This is what they mean by being unable to process orders in the order in which they were received.
 
They will operate in a way such that inventory (and new production) is turned into cash in the most efficient way possible.

Your order will be a high priority and will be shipped relatively quickly if:

1) It is a new order with new cash sent
2) It is relatively easy to fulfil from existing inventory or new production


You will be a low priority and you will quite possibly wait a very long time if:

1) You have already paid
2) Your order requires a large number of parts that they don't have in inventory, and some/all of those parts do not feature in large numbers in the order backlog


New production priorities will be determined by what facilitates shipping the highest volume, particularly of new orders which bring fresh cash. If your order needs parts X, Y and Z to complete it, but only a small number of other orders need parts X, Y and Z (and particularly if most of these orders are old ones) then they aren't going to dedicate production capacity to producing those parts. Your order will sit there unfulfilled until they literally have nothing more productive to do.

This is what they mean by being unable to process orders in the order in which they were received.

And how do you think they are going to MANAGE to do that? Sounds more complicated to me than running a normal business. ;)
 
I agree, thanks for your reply…the warm and fuzzy just isn’t there at this point…too many unknowns and then chapter 7 could surface and swallow up your 37k…might have to let the 10.5k go….unfortunately…the taking of kit orders at Airventure, knowing they were insolvent is a big red flag for me. Now those customers either pay the increase or lose their deposit…similar to writing a check when you know that you have insufficient funds…Unsat.
 
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There was some mention of "consumer deposit priority" or some phrase like that. It seemed to imply that deposits weren't lowest priority in the bankruptcy hierarchy. Did I hear that right and can someone elaborate?

Also wanted to say thanks to those with expertise answering questions like this, especially Ben Ellis. MVP of the Chapter 11 forum in my opinion.
 
And how do you think they are going to MANAGE to do that? Sounds more complicated to me than running a normal business. ;)

Probably the new folks coming in under the turnaround-meister will do it. It's certainly completely beyond Van's existing/prior management.

Working out what to produce next, in what order and in what size of production run will be a particularly complex quantitative methods challenge in management science and linear programming. You know the kind of thing - the simplest examples are what order a delivery van visits all the drop off points in to get the job done in the shortest time. This is at the other end of the scale with a large number of variables.

One could also work shipments into it and try to establish how best to dovetail that with production - what to ship and when in order to make the most profitable use of what's on hand and what's coming next. Or to simplify things greatly, just optimise production and let shipping proceed on 'send whatever's ready when it's ready' basis.

The first-principles logic behind the methods is bachelors degree stuff in management science. Once upon a time it would have been done by manually, these days software will do it. Assessing and inputting the variables will take time, but once that's done brute force computing power gives you the answers pretty quickly.

Or they might just eyeball it. It really depends what kind of people they're bringing in to run the show.
 
Probably the new folks coming in under the turnaround-meister will do it. It's certainly completely beyond Van's existing/prior management.

Working out what to produce next, in what order and in what size of production run will be a particularly complex quantitative methods challenge in management science and linear programming. You know the kind of thing - the simplest examples are what order a delivery van visits all the drop off points in to get the job done in the shortest time. This is at the other end of the scale with a large number of variables.

One could also work shipments into it and try to establish how best to dovetail that with production - what to ship and when in order to make the most profitable use of what's on hand and what's coming next. Or to simplify things greatly, just optimise production and let shipping proceed on 'send whatever's ready when it's ready' basis.

The first-principles logic behind the methods is bachelors degree stuff in management science. Once upon a time it would have been done by manually, these days software will do it. Assessing and inputting the variables will take time, but once that's done brute force computing power gives you the answers pretty quickly.

Or they might just eyeball it. It really depends what kind of people they're bringing in to run the show.

Wouldn't be surprised if the recent inventorying during the "assessment" period was entered in a system that'll make it easy to determine what's needed to complete kits.

Finn
 
One thing I noticed in the filings in their 13 week budget was the line collections on shipments and deliveries. They have a large ramp up in the 4th week of the plan. This makes me think they are planning on completing a lot of orders in the next month or so.
 
The thing is, one the major underlying factors in their present manufacturing difficulties is having too many different products with too many permutations (QB vs SB) and a very large number of discrete parts that have to be separately produced to form shippable kits for each.

That is what has caused their inventory to pile so high and shipments to slow to a crawl - the fact that although they have a building full of parts they struggle to put together even a single kit - there are just too many different parts now. The few kits that they are able to ship go out with many parts on backorder.

The sheer number of parts now in the Van's product range and the limitations of their simultaneous production capabilities would pose a challenge even for the most competent managers of an at-scale manufacturing operation. The Koreans or the Japanese would struggle. A design engineer and a cop never stood a chance.

While I can see the reasoning behind not killing the development program, adding a further product line makes one of the most serious underlying issues worse rather than better.

Seems they have a whole bunch of sheet alum inventory. However, from my understanding, the bulk of the missing pieces necessary to ship kits is 3rd party stuff - weldments, fiberglass, hardware, etc. It would seem that Vans has been able to make parts way faster than their suppliers. It would seem that issue needs to get addressed ASAP if they intend to ship complete kits.

Larry
 
At 2:33 PM Pacific Judge asks about the need for a charge for Inventory Services. Mr. Hamstreet (lonnnng pause) “the accounting system leaves a lot to be desired”

Let that sink in.

Yeah, I was listening in and heard everything in the tone of his voice.
 
It would seem that Vans has been able to make parts way faster than their suppliers. It would seem that issue needs to get addressed ASAP if they intend to ship complete kits.

Larry

In the last couple of years, the longest lead time items from Van's (for me) have been those sourced from third parties. Without more evidence, I can't conclude whether those delays were caused by manufacturing speed by the third party, or payment speed from Van's to them.

In any case, it's looking to me like my decision to cancel things like window transparencies and brakes/wheels from the kit was a good one for even more reasons than I initially thought.
 
One thing I noticed in the filings in their 13 week budget was the line collections on shipments and deliveries. They have a large ramp up in the 4th week of the plan. This makes me think they are planning on completing a lot of orders in the next month or so.

I don't fully understand this. They say they're giving all customers with deposits down until 15 January to accept as-yet-unannounced new pricing, but yet they plan to collect cash for shipments straight away. This must mean they're shipping kits straight away, and as you say quite a big ramp up of that after a few weeks. But if they've not yet announced the new pricing and the deadline for acceptance hasn't passed, can we assume those collections will be at the contracted prices?

It cannot represent those orders already paid in full, since there would be no cash receivable for them if they were shipped. I can't see any provision in there for inventory that goes out but for which no cash is received, i.e. those already paid in full.

They also have big number under deposit receipts starting week 12/31/2023, planning to take 117,519 in deposits each week. That's a lot of new orders. I would suggest they may be overestimating the willingness of new customers to enter the fray and existing customers to increase their exposure. I can't find the number now, but somewhere the paperwork contained information on how many new deposits had been received since the new deposit practice began on October 6th and it was a very low number.

The new deposit practice says you can have a refund if you request it before the notice of commencement. But the notice of commencement comes out of the blue - there is nothing in the proposal to say you get a warning. It would only offer real protection if it were advance warning, i.e. commencement will be in 5 business days, that is your deadline to request a refund. I have commented before that because of the unbalanced inventory and the large number of discrete parts in kit, it is easy to argue that commencement of production is close to immediate in most cases, even with a long lead time.

There is no pressing reason for customers to jump back in with new orders. They don't know the pricing yet. They don't know what the lead times will be. They don't know if they can trust the company. I'm prepared to wager that many will adopt a watch and wait strategy, looking to see if VAF erupts with favourable reports of rapid shipping and low levels of backordered parts before they act.
 
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They’re basing their future existence on the customers in too deep to bail (roughly 16m out of the 22m in deposits not counting 1800 LCP customers). You either accept the new terms and your deposit is dissolved in the new pricing or you lose your deposit (simple math, either way your deposit is gone). A lot of people won’t make their final payments not knowing when a COMPLETE kit will ship (me)…a partial kit is not acceptable at this point (possible chapter 7, etc). Even if they say they are shipping a complete kit, it would be hard to believe (my engine was being crated in Aug, then Nov, etc)…as stated, new builders will not be looking at Vans from 1973 to 2021, they will be looking at the Vans from 22 and 23 and the outlook is not good. A lot of options out there for new builders, most will steer clear for obvious reasons.
 
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I don't fully understand this. They say they're giving all customers with deposits down until 15 January to accept as-yet-unannounced new pricing, but yet they plan to collect cash for shipments straight away. This must mean they're shipping kits straight away, and as you say quite a big ramp up of that after a few weeks. But if they've not yet announced the new pricing and the deadline for acceptance hasn't passed, can we assume those collections will be at the contracted prices?

It cannot represent those orders already paid in full, since there would be no cash receivable for them if they were shipped. I can't see any provision in there for inventory that goes out but for which no cash is received, i.e. those already paid in full.

They also have big number under deposit receipts starting week 12/31/2023, planning to take 117,519 in deposits each week. That's a lot of new orders. I would suggest they may be overestimating the willingness of new customers to enter the fray and existing customers to increase their exposure. I can't find the number now, but somewhere the paperwork contained information on how many new deposits had been received since the new deposit practice began on October 6th and it was a very low number.

The new deposit practice says you can have a refund if you request it before the notice of commencement. But the notice of commencement comes out of the blue - there is nothing in the proposal to say you get a warning. It would only offer real protection if it were advance warning, i.e. commencement will be in 5 business days, that is your deadline to request a refund. I have commented before that because of the unbalanced inventory and the large number of discrete parts in kit, it is easy to argue that commencement of production is close to immediate in most cases, even with a long lead time.

There is no pressing reason for customers to jump back in with new orders. They don't know the pricing yet. They don't know what the lead times will be. They don't know if they can trust the company. I'm prepared to wager that many will adopt a watch and wait strategy, looking to see if VAF erupts with favourable reports of rapid shipping and low levels of backordered parts before they act.

People have until Jan 15th but those of us who get an email today and vote OK to the new terms/pricing TODAY *could* start to get kits ‘immediately’ if the kit is available is my take on that.
 
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I don't fully understand this. They say they're giving all customers with deposits down until 15 January to accept as-yet-unannounced new pricing, but yet they plan to collect cash for shipments straight away. This must mean they're shipping kits straight away, and as you say quite a big ramp up of that after a few weeks. But if they've not yet announced the new pricing and the deadline for acceptance hasn't passed, can we assume those collections will be at the contracted prices?

It cannot represent those orders already paid in full, since there would be no cash receivable for them if they were shipped. I can't see any provision in there for inventory that goes out but for which no cash is received, i.e. those already paid in full.

They also have big number under deposit receipts starting week 12/31/2023, planning to take 117,519 in deposits each week. That's a lot of new orders. I would suggest they may be overestimating the willingness of new customers to enter the fray and existing customers to increase their exposure. I can't find the number now, but somewhere the paperwork contained information on how many new deposits had been received since the new deposit practice began on October 6th and it was a very low number.

The new deposit practice says you can have a refund if you request it before the notice of commencement. But the notice of commencement comes out of the blue - there is nothing in the proposal to say you get a warning. It would only offer real protection if it were advance warning, i.e. commencement will be in 5 business days, that is your deadline to request a refund. I have commented before that because of the unbalanced inventory and the large number of discrete parts in kit, it is easy to argue that commencement of production is close to immediate in most cases, even with a long lead time.

There is no pressing reason for customers to jump back in with new orders. They don't know the pricing yet. They don't know what the lead times will be. They don't know if they can trust the company. I'm prepared to wager that many will adopt a watch and wait strategy, looking to see if VAF erupts with favourable reports of rapid shipping and low levels of backordered parts before they act.

Vans had my deposits for QB fuse and finish kits. I know and accept that my final price on those will go up. But I also have enough confidence in the company that I placed the order for my QB wings last month. A price increase has been long overdue and it is not going to deter me from building a great aircraft that will be in the family for decades.
 
How about us LCP and QB folks?

Any mention concerning how current LCP affected customers will be handled along with those of us with QB kits that are full of LCP and unable to produce due to the defective LCP? I have my entire -14 QB kit sitting on the hangar floor….fully bought and paid for, but unable to commence building due to the LCP issue. So, a few of the questions I have are:

1. Is my QB kit going to be replaced?
2. Am I going to be supplied parts but am going to have to make the repairs to my QB myself? If so, will I be refunded the premium that I paid for the QB option?
3. Where on the “priority” list do I stand?
 
People have until Jan 15th but those of us who get an email today and vote OK to the new terms/pricing TODAY *could* start to get kits ‘immediately’ if the kit is available is my take on that.

Is there an indication that those emails are coming out today?

This company has been struggling to convert production and inventory into cash for some time now. If the kit were available or even close to available, they'd have requested your final payment and shipped it - such is their need for cash.

The logical conclusion is that the excessive inventory levels are not easily turned into kits without extensive further production. Unless of course they've been hoarding complete kits in anticipation of springing increased pricing on customers after the filing, but I think that's unlikely as it would be even more unethical than prioritising empennage kits to add to the pool of captive customers.
 
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Any mention concerning how current LCP affected customers will be handled along with those of us with QB kits that are full of LCP and unable to produce due to the defective LCP? I have my entire -14 QB kit sitting on the hangar floor….fully bought and paid for, but unable to commence building due to the LCP issue. So, a few of the questions I have are:

1. Is my QB kit going to be replaced?
2. Am I going to be supplied parts but am going to have to make the repairs to my QB myself? If so, will I be refunded the premium that I paid for the QB option?
3. Where on the “priority” list do I stand?

Nope, it wasn't nearly that specific. It just stuck to the motions that are linked on page 2 of the top sticky in this forum.
 
Fuel for more conjecture. Even if you understand what is going on, that isn’t necessarily how it will go.
Been there, seen that.

I stand on this.
Folks are looking for answers that can’t be known at this time.
Hopefully, Vans will be communicating directly with affected folks, form an inclusive plan, and honor it.

As I say this I can fully understand people needing to talk. This the only place we can do that, and it’s ok, but it isn’t going to make a hill of beans of a difference.
 
Any mention concerning how current LCP affected customers will be handled along with those of us with QB kits that are full of LCP and unable to produce due to the defective LCP? I have my entire -14 QB kit sitting on the hangar floor….fully bought and paid for, but unable to commence building due to the LCP issue. So, a few of the questions I have are:

1. Is my QB kit going to be replaced?
2. Am I going to be supplied parts but am going to have to make the repairs to my QB myself? If so, will I be refunded the premium that I paid for the QB option?
3. Where on the “priority” list do I stand?

I haven’t seen or heard any specifics (i have read the filings and listened in to the hearing) on this topic. So everything below is my (weakly) informed opinion.

Unless the court demands specifics in the plan (I suspect they will not) Van’s will be allowed to handle these “product quality issues” using their business judgement and discretion, subject to their available financial resources, after emerging from Chapter 11 (and paying other creditors).

I am not a lawyer, but I suspect your “claim” should you file one, will be disputed by the company and rejected in the Chap 11 disposition. The company will argue they have fulfilled their obligation to you when you “accepted delivery.” It’s not as if a legal judgement had been issued against the company pre-petition, or any written compensation agreement had been reached. You may have a valid dispute, but the court may well not regard it as a valid unsecured claim. In the best case you’d have an unsecured claim and likely recovery will be very low.

That said: I suspect “new Van’s” (the post bankruptcy going concern) will find it in their best interest to NOT abandon customers impacted by LCP. To do so will impair their reputation and be devastating to new orders which are critical to their survival. If I were Van, I’d work very hard to replace (at cost of shipping only) the “RED” parts that they have assessed as “critical to safety.” To do otherwise would potentially subject individuals to liability (personally) in the event of LCP’s “causing” an injury. Replacing QB kits might be impractical financially, so maybe you’ll get a pile of parts and instructions on how to replace them in your QB assembly. I suspect they will require you to sign something saying you will not use any LCP parts which are replaced by punched parts and waive any liability if you choose to use the “RED” LCP parts anyway.

Huge unknowns in this entire situation, and “new Van’s” (as the DIP) will have a lot of discretion in the process going forward. The best hope in my opinion is substantially improved business management operating a recapitalized firm profitably. Lots of trust will be required, and lots of trust has been destroyed. Very tricky to execute successfully. Unless there is a more generous “white knight” than Van, willing to put more money in to (in essence) purchase the post bankruptcy firm, I don’t see a better alternative to the current plan.

FWIW: I see a lot of incompetence in what has occurred, but no bad faith. I do think Van (in particular) is working to make the best of a very bad situation.

Peter
 
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