I agree with you on this. Engine &props, Avionics . If deposits on these non Vans produced items goes away, so will Vans Aircraft's reputation. Understand Vans Aircraft lives in the real world. Any down turn in financial markets could very easily derail any recovery, in either case our dream airplanes will not be our first priority , its going to be a rough ten months ahead in more ways then one. I would caution the Lawyers/liquidators to go easy raiding these funds.IMHO
Van's Air Force
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Meeting of the creditors
- Thread starter bmellis11
- Start date
I agree with you on this. Engine &props, Avionics . If deposits on these non Vans produced items goes away, so will Vans Aircraft's reputation. Understand Vans Aircraft lives in the real world. Any down turn in financial markets could very easily derail any recovery, in either case our dream airplanes will not be our first priority , its going to be a rough ten months ahead in more ways then one. I would caution the Lawyers/liquidators to go easy raiding these funds.IMHO
Tankerpilot75
Well Known Member
I’ve been reading this thread and other Chapter 11 threads and have really mixed feelings about Vans right now. A lot of people suffered because Vans saw itself getting into trouble and put its interest before its customer’s interest. Having said that, I must say every RV owner has a vested interest in seeing Van’s survive - that is if you want to be able to insure or resale your aircraft at a future date.
At AirVenture 2022 a good friend of mine and I talked to several well known insurance company representatives about getting insurance for a V tail Bonanza. We heard from one representative that their company wasn’t insuring V tails any more because of ruddervator parts availability. Another representative said their company was considering the same thing. A third representative said the cost to insure Bonanzas was definitely increasing because of parts availability. When asked why this was occurring the common response was that it was becoming common to total a V tail with even a small ding because it was too costly to repair if it was on the titanium ruddervator assembly. Bottom line: if Vans disappears then the current availability of parts will also become constrained and the cost to insure RVs will most certainly be adversely impacted. Resale values will drop if Vans doesn’t survive. Nobody wants to own an aircraft that is dependent upon the cannibalisation of other aircraft for parts.
Frankly trust in Vans has been deeply damaged and that in itself is a major stain on the legacy of Richard Van Grunsvens and the company he created. I truly hope Vans can continue as a going concern - too many customers and small businesses depend on it. I’m sure he will do whatever he can to preserve his dream and legacy but it is imperative that management owns up to it’s mistakes and honors to the maximum extent possible it’s promise to its build customers and the deposits they made. We as customers of Vans need to support the reorganization if it will make the company successful again. But as President Reagan once said, “trust but verify“ and I for one am hopeful that verification will show that Vans can once again be a company deserving customer trust. We’ll see!
At AirVenture 2022 a good friend of mine and I talked to several well known insurance company representatives about getting insurance for a V tail Bonanza. We heard from one representative that their company wasn’t insuring V tails any more because of ruddervator parts availability. Another representative said their company was considering the same thing. A third representative said the cost to insure Bonanzas was definitely increasing because of parts availability. When asked why this was occurring the common response was that it was becoming common to total a V tail with even a small ding because it was too costly to repair if it was on the titanium ruddervator assembly. Bottom line: if Vans disappears then the current availability of parts will also become constrained and the cost to insure RVs will most certainly be adversely impacted. Resale values will drop if Vans doesn’t survive. Nobody wants to own an aircraft that is dependent upon the cannibalisation of other aircraft for parts.
Frankly trust in Vans has been deeply damaged and that in itself is a major stain on the legacy of Richard Van Grunsvens and the company he created. I truly hope Vans can continue as a going concern - too many customers and small businesses depend on it. I’m sure he will do whatever he can to preserve his dream and legacy but it is imperative that management owns up to it’s mistakes and honors to the maximum extent possible it’s promise to its build customers and the deposits they made. We as customers of Vans need to support the reorganization if it will make the company successful again. But as President Reagan once said, “trust but verify“ and I for one am hopeful that verification will show that Vans can once again be a company deserving customer trust. We’ll see!
Comparatively RV's are young aircraft. They also do not suffer the same issues with "certified" parts which is why other aircraft need to be cannibalized. This is not an apples comparison. Insurance and Resale would not suffer in the same way.
Ruddervators are magnesium not titanium.
I'm sure the coming new contract will mean a higher price. Whatever amount they increase the price of our engine, prop or avionics order, is essentially the same as losing that amount of our deposit. The price increase may well be more than what we have on deposit, which would be essentially like losing our entire deposit and then some. That was certainly the case with kit deposits.
If you decide not to accept the new price, you'll have to file a claim and the court will treat it no differently that any other deposit claim.
Tankerpilot75
Well Known Member
I stand corrected on the ruddervator material but disagree with you on the insurance and resale comment. Let’s hope we don’t have to find out who’s right.
I presume you mean your post from earlier today?
The posting rules are pretty clear, and from my perspective your post was clearly in violation of them.
So I’m not sure why you would expect it not to get deleted…
Link to rules if needed -
Richard Connell
Well Known Member
A quick peruse of other socials will disavow you of the notion that resale is going down- at the moment. Dig around yourself. This’ll get moderated if I post links.
I doubt it’s sustainable but all this has done in the short term has bumped used prices immediately upward by 25+%
What will kill the market will be macro in nature. Could be tomorrow, could be in 10y.
Insurance is a different beast. All insurance is going up across the board for a multitude of reasons which are well documented at the moment. Most of those have nothing to do with aircraft specifically but they affect all insured assets eventually plus there are some common traits. Namely inability to repair (lack of parts, lack of labor) and therefore more common writeoffs for comparatively less damage. Not RV specific.
Bottom line is nobody does well out of this mess unless you are selling up and taking on another hobby.
Phyrcooler
Well Known Member
I disagree about prices going up, although there’s a lot of rah rah wishful posts. I’ve been watching the usual prominent aviation sales sites multiple times DAILY for just over a year now as I’ve worked to position myself to purchase. Price and movement were strong during the spring and through summer. Prices definitely were going up. But as people kept pushing prices up, movement slowed and length of time ads were posted have absolutely lengthened unless the plane was really priced to sell. We’re at a point now where I’ve been looking at many of the same planes since before thanksgiving. The biggest blip I’ve seen since around the shutdown and subsequent Chapter 11 filing is multiple RV-6/6(A) owners started posting prices at or higher than 7’s. They used to post for $10k - $15k less than a comparable 7. Notably though, those planes are not moving.
Admittedly, none of us can see actual sales price, and while there is nothing close to a central listing such as you can see in the marine industry, it is readily apparent when planes are priced well. They will pop up for sale, and then the ads are marked as “under contract” or “sale pending”… or just be taken down… usually in less than 2 weeks. Other times planes come up with wishful pricing, and you’ll see that same ad 6 - 8 weeks later… or longer. I’ve seen multiple planes be for sale for weeks and months and disappear. Then they show up a few weeks later. An RV just showed up this morning for the third time in about 4 months. The posting date is meaningless on those sites that show it. It’s not uncommon for sellers to “refresh” their ad weekly to make it look like a new listing to a new shopper. Those are just my observations based on what I’m seeing - daily Looking at RV6/7/9’s. While I’m seeing the other’s, I’m primarily looking for a 9A.
I agree with you. I've seen planes that were listed 10 months ago at $250K still posted and price is now below $200K. This is all anecdotal but it appears prices are steadily rolling back. Whatever way you look at it, right now Van's is a risk (we can argue about the level of risk). It seems to me that there is a lot of wishful thinking taking place.
Richard Connell
Well Known Member
There is lots of actual sellers and buyers hashing out this discussion with much more vigour - and actual sales numbers. There’s lots of noise and opinion too.
I tend to be focused on 10s and 14s and that market is still hot. As often as not they are never even listed publicly. They’re like big city hangar space. Right place, right time. Word of mouth, unsolicited offers.
I don’t really follow the other 2 seaters. Maybe that supply demand dynamic is more balanced now.
I tend to be focused on 10s and 14s and that market is still hot. As often as not they are never even listed publicly. They’re like big city hangar space. Right place, right time. Word of mouth, unsolicited offers.
I don’t really follow the other 2 seaters. Maybe that supply demand dynamic is more balanced now.
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Paul Thomas
Well Known Member
The RV market, and experimental as a whole, it still very hot. Properly priced aircraft move incredibly fast. The certified market is slowing down and airplanes that you didn't see listed for sale are being listed, sometimes multiple examples are on the market at the same time.
'properly priced' being the operative term. look at all the plane sales website. I don't see RVs moving fast.
I have been watching RV prices on the RV10 and RV14 on Barnstormers.
The trend the last 4-5 months has been down.
Nice RV 10s originally listed in the 300K-350K range are getting price cuts of 25-35K after a few months of advertising.
RV14 show the same trend. It not such as sellers market as it was.
Richard Connell
Well Known Member
You’d have a slim chance of building yourself a new QB RV10 here for less than AUD500k.
Put a decent IFR panel in it and a few common mods and it’s 550. Get anyone else to help / builders assist then who knows how much more. I know it’s a shock but that’s just the cost now. Let alone the fact it’ll probably take you 3y to get all the bits and assemble them if you’re lucky.
I’m sure plenty of RV10s have traded in the US at USD400k (AUD600k)
Add in taxes and freight for us too…
9y old is a bit much though for asking top dollar.
newt
Well Known Member
You’d have a slim chance of building yourself a new QB RV10 here for less than AUD500k.
Put a decent IFR panel in it and a few common mods and it’s 550. Get anyone else to help / builders assist then who knows how much more. I know it’s a shock but that’s just the cost now. Let alone the fact it’ll probably take you 3y to get all the bits and assemble them if you’re lucky.
I’m sure plenty of RV10s have traded in the US at USD400k (AUD600k)
Add in taxes and freight for us too…
9y old is a bit much though for asking top dollar.
An RV-6 purchased in Western Australia arrived in the Sydney area 18 months ago for a bit over $90k.
We've been watching RV-6's and RV-6A's list for between A$140k and A$180k over the last couple of months. RV-7's are routinely exceeding $200k.
If these prices were on private sale listings, it'd be easy to dismiss them as silly opportunism. But they're listed by brokers who don't get paid without a sale, who know where the market is at, and who are unlikely to waste their time with tyre-kicking sellers.
Any suggestion that Chapter 11 is reducing prices is bonkers. In my peer group, we're all renegotiating our insured hull values upwards. Maybe we'll push 'em down again next year, but conditions at the moment are extraordinary.
- mark
Richard Connell
Well Known Member
I’m not even sure most of them are trading through brokers. But I couldn’t be sure. I believe the commissions are eye watering and theres no incentive to advertise when people are literally knocking on the hangar door.
I sold my last RV to a gentleman who just snail mailed every single RV7 on the register. Guy didn’t bat an eyelid on price. (Was clearly underpriced in hindsight)
I’ve had 2 unsolicited offers on my 10 in the mail since it’s been on the register. The first one was before it had even flown.
I sold my last RV to a gentleman who just snail mailed every single RV7 on the register. Guy didn’t bat an eyelid on price. (Was clearly underpriced in hindsight)
I’ve had 2 unsolicited offers on my 10 in the mail since it’s been on the register. The first one was before it had even flown.
It’s rarely been about what it would cost to build new (for comparison) till the BS Covid hit the streets! Then demand went nuts and the “ can’t build it for that” excuse for silly high prices took off!You’d have a slim chance of building yourself a new QB RV10 here for less than AUD500k.
Put a decent IFR panel in it and a few common mods and it’s 550. Get anyone else to help / builders assist then who knows how much more. I know it’s a shock but that’s just the cost now. Let alone the fact it’ll probably take you 3y to get all the bits and assemble them if you’re lucky.
I’m sure plenty of RV10s have traded in the US at USD400k (AUD600k)
Add in taxes and freight for us too…
9y old is a bit much though for asking top dollar.
I’ve owned 8 x A/C /2x Vans) I still own 4, none I’ve bought with the tag can’t build it for that applied! If that 10 sells for $AU600 I’d be extremely surprised and gobsmacked! Another crazy away with the fairy’s price is the $AU230K RV6A on the Ozzy market!
Richard Connell
Well Known Member
I know first hand of two circa 15yo RV7s that have sold for $250k.
Sure it’s not about how much it costs to build.
Until you want one and there are none about. You either pay the going rate if you can find one, take your chances putting down the full amount with Vans/Lycoming/Hartzell or eating the inflation and uncertainty along the way, or buy a boat.
The market has simply changed. supply used to exceed demand, now its the the other way around - and many can see it looks unlikely to change in the near term.
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